28 October Tropical Weather Outlook

Meteorological Services, MBIA. Gerard Tamar, Forecaster

Time/Date: 2:00 pm; Tuesday, 28 October, 2014. Area Of Special Interest: 10 – 20 °N And 45 – 65 °W

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Since upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days. By the weekend, however, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

A well-defined low pressure system, the remnants of former Tropical Storm Hanna, has emerged over the Gulf of Honduras near Roatan. This system is producing scattered showers across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent areas of northern Honduras, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize. Although upper-levels winds are somewhat favorable, proximity to land is expected to prevent any significant redevelopment of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. The system is forecast to move inland over Belize and northern Guatemala by Wednesday morning, ending any chance for redevelopment after that time.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.


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