Tropical Weather Outlook (Courtesy: NHC)
Meteorological Services, MBIA
Time/Date: Tuesday, 28 July 2020 (5 pm)
For Tropical North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: Area of Special Interest: 10 – 20°N and 45 – 65°W
- Disturbance forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday
- Expected to bring light to heavy rainfall and thundershowers to Grenada
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST
LOCATION: 14.4°N 55.9°W
ABOUT 410 MI ENE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: WNW AT 23 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1007 MB.
Discussion and outlook
At 5 pm AST, the disturbance was centred near latitude 14.4° North, longitude 55.9° West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph, and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands (centre near Guadeloupe) on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90%
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90%
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles primarily to the northeast of the centre.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 MB (29.74 inches).
Please note Grenada and its dependencies are NOT under any watch or warning.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON GRENADA
Due to the large size of this disturbance, some clusters of convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 are expected to traverse Grenada. Grenada is expected to experience cloudy to overcast conditions with light to heavy showers and the high chance of thunder tonight and tomorrow.
Across Grenada and its dependencies, 1 to 2 inches (25 – 50 mm) of rainfall is expected due to this disturbance.
Next advisory at 11 pm AST.
Eugine Whint, Duty Forecaster
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