Prepared by the Ministry of Finance, Economic Development, Physical Development, Public Utilities and Energy
November 2020
Overview
Consistent with global economic trends due to the impact of the coronavirus, Real GDP growth is projected to fall in 2020 by 12.2% underpinned by notable declines in key sectors such as Tourism, Wholesale and Retail Trade, and Transport. Activity in the Manufacturing Sector and the Agricultural Sector are also expected to fall relative to last year due to the effects of Covid-19. Average inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index was negative for the first 6 months of 2020 at -0.6% reflective of falling global oil prices. Preliminary data collected from the quarter two Labour Force Survey indicate increased unemployment at a rate of 28.4% compared to 15.7% in the second quarter of 2019.
Public finances have deteriorated in 2020, with the primary and overall surpluses estimated at 2.9% of GDP and 0.9 percent of GDP respectively, compared to 6.8% of GDP and 4.6% of GDP correspondingly in 2019. Public debt is expected to increase to 68.6% of GDP by year-end from 57.7% at the end of 2019.
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