Economics lecturer forecasts change in Government following General Elections

Dr Wayne Sandiford

A Grenadian lecturer at St George’s University believes that a voter turnout equivalent to that of 2008 will give the New National Party a greater chance of victory over the National Democratic Congress in next week Tuesday’s general election.

Dr Wayne Sandiford, in a public lecture on Wednesday night in which he examined the “likely outcome’’ of the elections, said a projection of the winner is based on the assumption that the National Democratic Congress has lost support since assuming office in 2008.

In an analysis that he said was based on “pure numbers” that are “stripped of emotions”. Dr Sandiford who is a lecturer in economics at St George’s University said the only likelihood of an NDC victory next week is with a voter turnout above 80 percent; and with a voter swing away from the National Democratic Congress of two percent or less.

The NDC formed the government in 2008 after an 11–4 victory over the New National Party.

The voter turnout was more than 80 percent. NDC captured 40.79 percent of all votes cast, and the NNP picked up 38.25 percent.

Dr Sandiford said data suggests that a swing of three percent to the New National Party could possibly set the NNP to winning 9 of the 15 parliamentary seats. “With a swing of 3.5 percent,” he added “The outcome could leave NDC winning just the constituencies of St David and St George’s North East.

A voter swing away from the NDC of five percent or more indicates that “it’s basically game over’’ for the National Democratic Congress,” he said.

“I agree with nothing,” the SGU lecturer said. “I’m just saying that’s the data. I’m just doing a statistical analysis.” Voter turnout rate, while important, is more influential in determining by how much a candidate wins a constituency, rather than in deciding the overall election outcome, Dr Sandiford argued.

More than 62,000 persons are registered to vote in the February 19th elections.

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