Meteorological Services, MBIA
TIME/DATE: Wednesday, June 30, 2021 (2:00 PM)
For Tropical North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico
Area Of Special Interest: 10 – 20 °N AND 45 – 65 °W
System 1: Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located over the Lesser Antilles. This system has become less organized since yesterday, and significant development is no longer expected while it moves quickly westward across the Caribbean Sea. The wave should continue to produce locally heavy rains over portions of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. This system has a low chance, near 0%, of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. The Met Office has issued a warning for a medium chance of minor flooding in vulnerable areas tonight into Thursday morning.
System 2: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low-pressure area and tropical wave located about 1150 nautical miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday. However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. The Met Office continues to closely monitor the progress of this system as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. This area of low-pressure has a high chance,70%, of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and a 90% chance of formation within the next 5 days. Regardless of its development, this system is expected to bring showers and thundershowers to Grenada and the rest of the Windward Islands by Friday afternoon.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected within the next 48 hours.
Cécil Mitchell, Duty Forecaster
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